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Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has sought to deter the West from supplying Kiev with ever more powerful weapons by threatening retaliation and escalation of the war. At every opportunity — the delivery of short-range missiles, tanks, F-16 fighter jets, long-range missiles — Moscow’s bluff has been called.
This week, the Kremlin finally followed through on its threat. Almost 72 hours after the US authorized Kiev to use US, UK and French long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, Moscow has launched attacks on Ukraine the likes of which we have not seen before – Kiev First combat use of A nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile is called.
Earlier on Thursday, Russian forces launched an attack on the Dnipro in south-central Ukraine, with what President Vladimir Putin identified as an experimental Orshank missile and an RS-26 Rubezh ICBM that Ukrainian officials identified. The RS-26 is a test missile based on another Russian ICBM, but it has a much shorter range.
Although it is listed as an ICBM under the 2010 New START Nuclear Weapons Treaty, some analysts have questioned whether the RS-26 qualifies as one and Western officials are reluctant to call it such. Muddying the waters further, the Russian president described Orshank as the middle ground. Either way, and whatever the name, the attack was a message.
A video of the attack reportedly showed six explosions consistent with multiple warheads designed to carry such a weapon. The effects on the video suggest that there was no payload to release the nuclear charge. This was first and foremost a warning.
Thursday’s strike appeared to be a broad-based attempt to demonstrate growing dominance — the ability to overtake the West on the full retaliatory ladder to nuclear war. Despite its repeated verbal threats and blood-curdling rhetoric, the Kremlin has struggled since 2022 to find measures stronger than words to curb Western support for Ukraine.
No one can afford to take Russian nuclear weapons lightly. But what’s interesting about Moscow’s ICBM strike is how much of a performance it was. Ukrainian media reported on Wednesday that the Kremlin was preparing a possible attack from a site in southern Astrakhan with the RS-26. doing, from where the attack was made the next day.
The US embassy in Kiev was also temporarily closed on Wednesday following an alert of a possible large-scale attack. Can alerts and news come from the same source? The embassy said on Thursday that it had been notified of the strike “briefly before the launch through nuclear threat reduction channels”. Even during this escalation, Moscow appears to be sticking to certain security protocols.
Russia has attacked Ukraine with other nuclear-capable ballistic missiles such as the Iskander and Kunzal. Even so, firing a strategic weapon at his neighbor is clearly a quick move. For Moscow, it also has the benefit of exposing more vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s overstretched air defenses. That has fueled calls in Ukraine for a U.S.-made THAAD system, the most advanced anti-ballistic missile defense available, which Kiev is unlikely to get any time soon.
After threatening retaliation if Washington authorized Kiev to launch a long-range missile strike on Russian soil, the Kremlin did not bat an eye at the opportunity.
But, as Alexander Bonoff of the Carnegie Endowment pointed out at X, Putin’s description of the missile strike as a “test in combat conditions” marks a reversible step on the escalation ladder. is, not a jump.
Baunov wrote, “It is part of a broader Russian official strategy to obscure the crossing threshold with language that suggests that the threshold has not been fully crossed – or even changed. “Could,” Baunoff wrote.
Escalationism suggests that finding the next incremental step without alienating Moscow’s friends in Beijing or upsetting the Russian public may prove just as difficult for the Kremlin.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House vowing to bring or impose peace in Ukraine, Putin won’t have to dwell on it for long.
