Experts have warned that this unusual warm winter in northern India this year pose a threat to the wheat crop, adding that this could again feed on inflation.
India is the second largest producer in the world for wheat prices and wholesale from the primary element that has already started climbing in January before the new crop.
While the government is still optimistic about the harvesting of good wheat that would help keep prices under examination, the unusually warm winter is a threat. The Indian Ministry of Meteorology predicted that most of India will face higher temperatures than natural and rainfall in February. However, the western turmoil is expected to strike the north and northwest during the next few days, and this may help the wheat crop.
PARAS JASRAI, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, noted that high temperatures are uncertain in the global economic environment that is on the threshold of new tariff wars. “The temperatures are recorded higher than abnormal in January 2025, if the dominant temperature continues in February (which was higher than usual) until March 2025, it will have a negative impact on the production of RABI crops that can slow down food inflation. He said in inflation data Wholesale in January: “The growing trend in wheat prices can be monitored.”
WPI enlargement in January 2025 fell to 2.31 % of 2.37 % in March with low food prices. Wholesale inflation in the food index was at its lowest level in five months by 7.47 % last month. However, bulk inflation in wheat began to capture it and was 9.8 % in January, the highest level in two years. On a monthly basis, wheat enlargement increased by 1.76 %.
ECO’s quantitative research also noted that after the dry and warm January, IMD predicts similar conditions for masters in February, with maximum temperatures and minimum levels higher than usual over most of the country. “If this trend continues in March, it may have a negative impact on crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpeas and apples.” On January 25, the average rainfall was 72 % less than usual, while the average average temperature was third higher since 1901.
Currently, retail enlargement is still measured by the consumer price index in the dilution path, and it got 4.31 % in January from 5.22 % in December 2022, where analysts expect to decrease to about 4 % in the coming months. Retail in grain and products reached 6.24 % of 6.51 % in December 2024.