Russian gains accelerate as Ukraine’s Kursk gamble fails.

The Russian military is accelerating its gains along the front line at a crucial time in the fighting in Ukraine.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) show that Russia will have gained almost six times more territory in 2024 than in 2023, and that it will control Ukraine’s main logistical hubs in the eastern Donbass region. The side is advancing.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is failing. Russian troops have pushed back Kyiv’s offensive. Experts have questioned the success of the attack, with one calling it a “strategic disaster” given the manpower shortages Ukraine faces.

The development comes at a time of increasing uncertainty with the second administration of Donald Trump. The US president-elect has vowed to end the war after taking office in January, leading some to fear he could cut future military aid to Ukraine.

The frontline moved rapidly in the first few months of the war, with Russia rapidly gaining ground before being pushed back by a Ukrainian counteroffensive. But neither side made any major gains in 2023 — the conflict largely slipped into stalemate.

But new data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the 2024 story is more favorable for Russia. ISW based its analysis on verified social media footage and reports of troop movements.

Moscow’s forces have captured about 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared to just 465 square kilometers in all of 2023, nearly six times more, ISW data shows.

Dr Marina Miron, a defense researcher at King’s College London, suggested to the BBC that Ukraine’s eastern front “could actually collapse” if Russia continued to advance rapidly.

More than 1,000 square kilometers were covered between September 1 and November 3, suggesting that the push has intensified in recent months. These developments affect two regions, Kopyansk and Korakhov in the Kharkiv region, which is a stepping stone to the main logistics center of Pokrosk in the Donetsk region.

Kopyansk and areas east of the Oskal River was liberated in the 2022 Kharkiv invasion.But Russia has gradually regained the latter territory. In a recent intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defense said that Russian forces were trying to enter the northeastern outskirts of the city.

Footage posted on November 13 and confirmed by the BBC is consistent with this analysis. The video shows a Russian weapons convoy being pushed back after getting within 4km of the key bridge in Kopyansk, the last major road crossing in the area.

While these reports do not necessarily translate into control of any territory, they do indicate how stretched Ukraine’s defense line is.

Elsewhere, since recapturing the city of Volodymyr in October – a high point that sits above key supply lines and for which Moscow fought for two years – Russia has thrown resources at Korakhov..

Ukrainian forces defending the city have so far repelled attacks to the south and east. But with the front line drawing ever closer, Russia has also threatened to encircle the defenders from the north and west.

Col. Yevgeny Sasiko, former head of strategic communications with Ukraine’s General Staff, said Russia places “powerful jaws” around a city that slowly “grind” until they collapse.

Footage of the city confirmed by the BBC showed widespread destruction, with residential buildings heavily damaged.

ISW concluded that Moscow now holds a total of 110,649 square kilometers in Ukraine. By comparison, Ukrainian forces captured just 1,171 square kilometers in the first month they entered Kursk – although Russian forces have now recaptured almost half of that territory.

Despite its territorial advantages, Russia’s advances have come at a great cost.

An analysis by BBC Russian confirmed that at least 78,329 soldiers have been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, from September to November of this year. The losses are one and a half times more than the losses. The same period in 2023.

Losses have been compounded by the “meat grinder” approach favored by Russian commanders — which describes waves of recruits moving toward Ukrainian positions in an effort to wear down troops.

Despite the Russian progress, some experts note that the actual pace of the offensive is still slow. David Handelman, a military analyst, suggested that Ukrainian forces in the east were withdrawing slowly to conserve manpower and resources rather than risk a wider disaster.

Ukraine began its shock incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. It is unclear why Russia took so long to respond to the operation, which saw Kiev’s troops quickly take control of many border communities.

Dr Miron suggested that while the Kremlin would face a domestic political cost as long as the incursion continued, Russia’s General Staff was keen to keep Ukrainian forces locked in Kursk as its forces crossed the front line. At the same time, there were other successes.

But Moscow now clearly intends to regain lost territory on its territory. About 50,000 troops have been deployed in the region.

Confirmed videos from the Kursk region show intense fighting – and that Russia is suffering significant losses in terms of manpower and equipment. But the data clearly show that Ukraine’s control over the region is shrinking.

According to ISW data, since the beginning of October, Russian counter-offensives have retaken about 593 square kilometers of territory in the border area.

The Kursk incursion was an early morale boon for Ukraine at a time of severe setbacks, and the boldness of the operation was a reminder of its ability to surprise and damage its enemy.

But Dr Miron said that while the Kursk incursion was a moment of “strategic mastery”, it had also been a “strategic disaster” for Ukraine.

“The whole idea was to gain some political leverage in a possible negotiation, but militarily to get Russian forces out of Donbas to liberate Kursk. And what we’re seeing instead is Ukrainian units tied up there. are

Some of Kiev’s most experienced and effective units are known to have fought in Kursk. Mechanized units equipped with the latest western weapons are also involved in the attack.

Ukrainian leaders have indicated they hope the incursion will force Moscow to redirect some of its forces from eastern Ukraine and slow Russian advances there. Instead, experts say most of the reinforcements were moved to Kursk from parts of Ukraine where fighting is less intense.

“According to Ukrainian troops coming from different parts of the front, Russian troops reinforcing Kursk were mainly drawn from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,” Yuriy Clavelier, a ground analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC. was gone.”

“The fighting there is not as intense as in the east. Some of the Russian units attacking Kharkiv were also redirected to Kursk as Ukraine was able to hold off the Russian offensive there.

The importance of territory to both parties is the strength that gives their position in any potential negotiations. Although there has been no talk of peace talks, US President-elect Trump has claimed he can end the war within 24 hours, without saying how.

On Tuesday, Ukraine Russia launches US-supplied long-range missiles. For the first time – a day after Washington gave him permission to do so. It is believed that the decision was made to help Ukraine gain control of a part of Kursk, to be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

But Dr Miron told the BBC that Russia’s advances had given him a stronger negotiating position as Trump’s new foreign policy team prepares to take office.

“What they’re controlling right now gives them a distinct advantage,” he said. “If it comes to talks, I believe that, as the Russian side is emphasizing, ‘we will do it based on the order of the battlefield’.”

“From the Russian point of view, they have better cards than the Ukrainians.”

Additional reporting by Alex Murray.