Olaf Schulz is facing a “Biden moment” amid growing pressure from his own party to abandon his bid for a second term as German chancellor and make way for a more popular defense minister. between the
Scholz has the backing of the Social Democratic leadership, which has so far backed his bid to lead the party in its campaign for next February’s snap election.
But a growing number of SPD members are concerned about his low approval rating, fearing he could drag down the party, which is already down at 15 percent in the polls, on the far right. K is behind the Christian Democratic Union and the far-right Alternative. Germany.
The coup is supported by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the country’s most popular politician.
“To put it bluntly, we have two potential candidates – one the most popular politician in Germany, and the other the most Less popular politician.” “That basically says it all.”
Insa found this week that Scholz was at the bottom of a ranking of 20 German politicians, with Pistorius number one. A separate poll by DeutschlandTrend found that 47 percent of SPD supporters believe Scholz is not a good candidate for chancellor.
Scholz this month pulled the plug on his deeply unpopular three-party alliance between the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals, paving the way for snap elections on February 23.
Disappointing approval ratings led some in the SPD to call on Scholes to follow US President Joe Biden’s example and drop out of the race.
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Biden passed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris after a disastrous TV debate performance in June cast doubt on his chances of winning against Donald Trump. But that still didn’t stop Democrats from a decisive defeat in this month’s election.
In Germany, opinion is divided between the rank and file. Dirk Smaczny, head of the SPD’s local branch in Rheinhausen-Mitte, said there was “no clear majority for Scholz or Pistorius” at the party meeting on Tuesday evening.
“Some of us said we should stick with Scholes – he is the chancellor after all,” he said. “Others said we should go with Pistorius because . . . they have the impression that people don’t want schools anymore.
At first the agitation against the schools was of a private nature. After that, local politicians started speaking publicly against his candidacy. Mumm said he would not put up campaign posters with Scholes’ face if he was nominated as the party’s official candidate.
“He’s not a leader,” the mother told the FT. “That’s not to say he doesn’t have other qualities – he’s intelligent, he’s got talent. But he’s not the kind of person who can explain to voters where he wants to take the country.’ ‘
In the past few days, anti-Scholes sentiment has grown in what some observers are calling open rebellion. Even some formerly loyal MPs have questioned whether he should run.
Some elders of the party have also spoken. Sigmar Gabriel, a former SPD leader and former foreign minister, said resistance to ‘business as usual’ with Chancellor Scholes was growing “every day” within the party. “We need brave political leadership.” He wrote on X. “Anyone who lets things slide will take the SPD below 15%!”
Many in the SPD have been surprised by the stance of the party’s ruling executive board, which could have moved quickly to formally anoint Scholes as its candidate for chancellor shortly after the coalition collapsed. .
Instead, it allowed for internal debate about who was the best candidate to gather steam.
Some observers do not expect a formal decision until shortly before the party’s “electoral victory conference” on November 30, which will mark the start of the first campaign for the chancellor’s candidate.
Scholes, who has been in Rio de Janeiro for the past few days to attend the G20 summit, is playing down his candidacy. He brushed aside a reporter’s question on the matter, saying only: “We want to succeed together. Together, the SPD and me.”
Observers say there are now several possible scenarios. Scholz could withdraw his candidacy – an option that seems unlikely. SPD’s executive board could decide to run with the schools – the most likely course of events. Or it could decide not to nominate him and bid for someone else, an outcome that is currently unlikely.
It will be unprecedented. “Throughout the SPD’s history in the post-war period it was always assumed that a serving chancellor – whether Willy Brandt in 1972, Helmut Schmidt in 1980 or Gerhard Schröder in 2002 and 2005 – would be the party’s candidate for chancellor. ” Axel Schaefer, SPD MP from the western city of Bochum, said. “I don’t understand why they don’t see the logic.”
He added that Scholes is still widely respected by many in the party for leading him to an unexpected victory in the 2021 Bundestag elections. He said he still has that glow of electoral success – it’s undeniable. “You have to respect what he’s achieved.”
Some members of the party also expressed doubts about Pistorius’ abilities. He is seen as likable and down-to-earth, and an expert on defense issues, but he is less adept at economic policy than Scholes — a potential disadvantage in a campaign that is expected to be his bread and butter. will revolve around the problems of Like pension and welfare system.
Smaczny spoke of a different one Candidate for Chancellor “In the end, it’s the policies that matter,” he said. If we have a new face, we also need some new policies. And yet we haven’t talked about it at all.
Uwe Jun, a political scientist at the University of Trier, said the fate of Biden and Harris showed that simply switching candidates would not solve the SPD’s problems.
“The American example showed that personality change alone was not convincing to voters,” he said.
Additional reporting by Laura Patel
Data visualization by Martin Staub
