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When Friedrich Merz suddenly re-entered politics after an absence of nearly 10 years, some described it as the second coming. Others said it was the return of the undead.
However you define it, Merz’s rebound has been the most remarkable comeback in recent German history. And if the polls are correct, it could culminate as early as next year with his election as the country’s 10th post-war chancellor.
It would be a rare moment of perseverance for Mears. Spurred from power by his nemesis Angela Merkel in 2002, he spent the following years on the sidelines before leaving the Bundestag in 2009 to pursue a career in business. For years it looked as if he had toyed with the door to the world of high politics and would never return. Now he is back, with his centre-right Christian Democratic Union in pole position to win a snap election on February 23 and successfully return to the chancellorship.
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann, who has known him for years, says Mears was made for the turbulent times in Germany and the world, with Donald Trump soon to return to the White House and Berlin for the cool air from Washington. are ready “We have to show pragmatism and realpolitik, not moralism and finger-pointing,” he says.
German politics has been in turmoil since Chancellor Olaf Schulz pulled the plug on his coalition last week. Schulz faces a confidence vote in parliament on December 16. He would lose, paving the way for national elections in February, seven months ahead of schedule.
This week Merz and Scholz fired the starting gun on the campaign trail with an exchange of verbal blows in the Bundestag. Addressing the schools, Mirza said the entire country felt “deep relief” at the end of his regime. Then, in a typically withering salvo, he predicted that Trump would make short work of the schools when he takes over the US government early next year. “He’ll rattle you like a light bulb,” he said to thunderous applause from CDU MPs.
Merz’s parliamentary party has long been impressed by his rhetorical skills. “Boris Becker always said that Wimbledon Center Court was his living room,” says Lenman. “Friedrich Merz’s living room is the floor of the Bundestag.” But his partisan approach has occasionally landed him in trouble, with some accusing him of espousing the rhetoric of a far-right alternative to Germany. In 2022 he accused Ukrainian migrants of “welfare tourism”. Last year he described the sons of immigrants as “little pashas”. He also suggested that failed refugees were getting fancy dental treatment at taxpayers’ expense while ordinary Germans struggled to get appointments.
“I don’t think people want their chancellor talking like that,” says Anton Hofreiter, a senior Greens MP. But Merz says he’s just a straight talker – unusual in German politics. “I think sometimes you have to be frank,” he told the FT. “And the problem is that people aren’t used to it anymore.”
Yet his occasional misunderstandings are seen as a reason why his personal approval rating is lower than his party’s. According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a pollster, only a fifth of voters considered him “particularly suitable” for the job of chancellor, although his rating has improved in recent surveys.
“As a person, voters find him unlikable,” says Manfred Gulner, head of polling organization Forsa. Polling by Forsa shows the CDU heading for a big victory in February. But many in the SPD say that when it comes to crisis, voters will prefer “calm”, “hands-on” schools to Merz. He also noted that he has no government experience – unlike the veteran Scholes. “Scholz has better cards,” says Johannes Fechner, a senior SPD MP. “Merz has no real plan, for example on immigration. It’s all just hot air and sound bites.
Born in Berlin, West Germany, in 1955, Mears studied law and was first elected to the Bundestag in 1994. After leaving politics he worked as a corporate lawyer at Meyer Braun, and served as Chairman of the Supervisory Board of BlackRock Germany between 2016 and 2020. Becoming a millionaire in the process.
But Germany does not have much of a tradition of wealthy businessmen entering politics, and experts say their wealth and corporate backgrounds may count against them. He caused a stir on social media in 2022 when he flew his private jet to attend the high-society wedding of former finance minister Christian Lindner on Sylt, a popular holiday island for Germany’s wealthy.
Speaking to the FT this year, Mears blamed the Germans’ negative view of him on “years of Mears’ beatings that hit me personally”. He told the FT that there was a “completely distorted image of me” fostered by political opponents.
But other pollsters find Meyers’ toughness appealing. After all, he won the CDU leadership at only the third attempt.
Some have compared his ambition and energy to that of former chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who as a young man rattled the chancellery door, exclaiming: “I want in!”
“He’s a real fighter,” says Wolfgang Schröder, a political scientist. “He’s someone who’s eager to be chancellor, who’s passionate about it. It’s been his lifelong dream. And it’s a great fit for the job.”
guy.chazan@ft.com
