Doug Bauer, chief executive of publicly traded homebuilder TriPoint Homes, expects a “very strong spring sales season” after what feels like two years of disappointing existing home sales — And, more recently, hesitancy between buyers and sellers amid fluctuating mortgage rates. Presidential elections.
In an interview with CNBC yesterday, Bauer explained that the homes are in demand. Everyone wants a place to live. The problem is supply. The administration he envisions could mean good things for the housing world: from corporate taxes, to regulation, to mass deportations. Still, many of the barriers to construction come from land-use controls at the state and local level, especially in high-cost-of-living states like California.
There are many unknowns, Bauer explained — and yet there is one thing we can expect, and that has to do with corporate tax rates. He said the corporate tax rate would remain flat or go down. “So, that’s a positive thing.”
Then there is the code. Republicans and deregulation are almost always inseparable, so another Donald Trump presidency could stoke those tendencies. In particular, Bauer envisions reforming a number of government agencies, from the Department of Housing and Urban Development to those responsible for energy and the environment. It’s possible that reform through a loose regulatory environment is actually a product of a government efficiency department run by none other than the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. .
“Financial markets and banks are going to deal with a lot less regulation,” Bauer said. , there’s more incentive for mid-sized builders to put in dollars.”
While public builders don’t have much of a problem with financing, he said, “opening the financial spigot would help the entire industry.” In addition, we may see more mergers and acquisitions, which some say could be beneficial for real estate companies.
After all, it’s not just Bauer and Tri Pointe Homes that have a better outlook for next year, whether or not it involves another Trump presidency. UWM Holdings, the parent company of United Wholesale Mortgage, announced in its third-quarter results that it is positioned for a refinance boom. The company’s refinance volume rose to $13.3 billion in the quarter, up from $6.5 billion in the previous quarter, signaling increased momentum in the refinance market, even with higher interest rates on the table. Chairman and chief executive Matt Ashbia was pleased with the results and said the firm was ready to take advantage of the refinance raise when it “inevitably” comes.
“Right now, UWM is in a much better position than it was before the last refinancing boom,” Ashbia said in a statement. “Simply put, our operational fitness is at an all-time high, and you’ll only see us get faster from here.”
Then there’s the $27 billion Rocket Companies, which operates Rocket Mortgage, Rocket Loans, and Rocket Homes, which increased its refinance market share from 12 percent to 20 percent in 2024, the company announced this month. . The company’s home equity loan volume also grew by 78 percent year-on-year. It offers home equity loans as an alternative route to refinancing. According to its latest financial filing, it aims to further increase its refinance share by 2027.
Not to mention, Rocket’s chief financial officer Varun Krishna explained during the company’s recent earnings call that it has identified a “growth audience” that could reshape the home-buying landscape: households. Female heads, Hispanic buyers, and older first-time buyers. According to a transcript, Krishna said, “Women’s economic influence will continue to grow, with women managing two-thirds of household wealth.” “Our brand will be ready to meet clients where they are.”
To that end, the company reportedly purchased a new domain, Rocket.com, for $14 million. Krishna said during the call that it will “unveil the new Rocket brand identity” in February 2025. The company will also reportedly return to the Super Bowl in 2025. Integrate the experience of home ownership into home searching and mortgage,” said Krishna. “In the coming months, we will share a larger ambition with Malik and establish a brand that will be one for our clients. Again representing the ability to own the attractive American Dream.”
Not all roses.
But there is the matter of tariffs — Trump tariffs, indeed. When asked, Bauer said he thinks it’s possible to get a tax cut before the tariffs that could actually offset any increase in costs for businesses and their margins. “I think this incoming administration will have a positive business and economic impact,” he said.
Trump promised mass deportations of undocumented immigrants on the campaign trail, and confirmed as president-elect that he would declare a national emergency to do so. There is some concern about the impact this will have on the supply of labour, and therefore the cost of building houses etc. Bauer then said there are a lot of unknowns, but it doesn’t sound like he’s expecting a hit.
“I think obviously we don’t really know the overall impact, and whether it’s going to be more focused on criminals… I mean, whatever is going to be done, I think it should be done legally. Ga,” he said. “As a major builder, we haven’t had a problem with the labor side of the equation this year. And frankly, as you look at the Trump years, we haven’t had a labor problem. So I’m on the margin. I think it won’t be a big deal.
Tri Pointe’s stock is up nearly 173% over the past five years and 40% over the past year. Unlike the rest of the housing world, builders were largely flexible. They offered mortgage rate buyouts, reduced rates, and even built smaller homes to counter the rising rates, skyrocketing prices, and low supply that had defined the market for some time — and May continue.
