Trump cultivates uncertainty – Shi Jinping sees an opportunity

If China is angry with the United States to impose an additional 10 % tariff on all Chinese commodities, it is doing a good job to hide it.

Canada and Mexico pledged revenge, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that his country “will not retreat” as he announced a tax of 25 % on more than $ 100 billion (81 billion pounds) of American goods.

Then US President Donald Trump agreed to temporarily stop the customs tariff for goods imported from both countries after reaching separate agreements with them. However, the definitions of China are scheduled to enter into force on Tuesday.

To date, Beijing has run its fire.

In 2018, when Trump launched the first rounds of definitions targeting Chinese imports, Beijing announced that it was “not afraid of a commercial war.” This time, he urged the United States to speak and “interview China in the middle of the road.” Reports indicate that a call between Trump and Shi Jinping can take place this week.

This does not mean that the advertisement will not give birth. He will do this, especially since a 10 % tax adds to a large number of definitions imposed in his first term on tens of billions of commodities.

The partially silent Chinese government is because it does not want to worry its residents, when many already feel anxious about the slow economy.

But this economy does not depend on the United States as it was at that time. Beijing has strengthened its trade agreements throughout Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. It is now the largest commercial partner for more than 120 countries.

Chung Ja Ean of Carnegie China says the additional 10 % may not make the leverage that Trump wants.

“China will think it can bear 10 % – and therefore, I think Beijing will play it wonderfully. Because if it is not a big deal, there is no reason to choose a battle with the Trump administration unless there is a real benefit for Beijing.”

President Xi Jinping may have another reason: he may see an opportunity here.

Trump sows the division in his backyard, and threatens to the European Union (European Union) with definitions – all in his first month in his position. Its actions may have other allies from the United States wondering what to hide them.

In contrast, China will want to look a quiet, stable and possibly world partner.

“Trump’s policy in America will bring challenges and threats to almost all countries in the world,” says Yun Sun, director of China at Stimson Center.

“From the perspective of the American -Chinese strategic competition, the deterioration of American leadership and credibility will benefit China. It is unlikely to turn well with China at the bilateral level, but Beijing will definitely try to make lemon juice …”

As the leader of the second largest economy in the world, nothing has hidden in his ambition from China to lead Alternative global system.

Since the end of Covid’s pandemic, he has traveled on a large scale, and has supported major international institutions such as the World Bank and agreements such as Paris Climate Agreements.

This Chinese government media portrayed this as embracing countries around the world and deepening diplomatic relations.

Before that, when Trump stopped financing from In 2020, China pledged additional money. Expectations are high that Beijing will intervene to fill America’s shoes again, after Washington has left the World Health Organization.

The same applies to freezing aid that causes such chaos in countries and organizations that have long been dependent on American financing – China may want to fill the gap, despite economic shrinkage.

On his first day in the office, Trump froze all the foreign assistance provided by the United StatesIt is so large, the largest donor to help in the world. Hundreds of external aid programs offered by the United States Agency for International Development. Some have been restarted since then, but aid contractors have been on the continuous chaos that the agency’s future is suspended in balance.

John Delori, historian of modern China and professor at the University of UNESE in Seoul, says Trump’s “first America” ​​doctrine can weaken the position of Washington as a global leader.

“A mixture of customs tariffs on the main commercial partners and freezing foreign assistance sends a message to the global south and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development alike that the United States is not interested in international partnership and cooperation.”

“President Xi’s consistent message of the globalization of” victory “takes a completely new sense as America retracts the world.”

In an attempt to global rule, Beijing is looking for an opportunity to raise the world -led global order over the past fifty years – and the uncertainty in Trump 2.0 may be good.

“Whether it really gives Beijing a basic advantage – I am a little less confirmation,” says Chung.

“Many allies and partners, especially in the Pacific Ocean, have a reason to work with Beijing, but they also have reasons for caution. For this reason we saw Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia approaching together, partly because of the fears it houses towards China.”

There is a “momentum” of a possible triple relationship between Australia, Japan and South Korea, motivated by the “Trump Administration’s second influence”, according to the Australian Institute for International Affairs.

All three are concerned about China’s confirmation of the South China Sea, along with the Philippines. They are also concerned about a potential war on Taiwan self -government – Beijing sees a separatist boycott that will eventually be part of the country, and has not ruled out the use of power to achieve this.

Taiwan has always been one of the most controversial issues in relations between the United States of China, as Beijing condemned any imaginative support from Washington to Tibbeh.

But it might be difficult for Washington to return to the signs of Chinese aggression when Trump threatens repeatedly with Canada’s appendix or buying Greenland.

Most countries in the region used a military alliance with Washington to balance their economic relationship with China.

But now, warned against Beijing and Usure from the United States, they can create new Asian alliances, with any of the world’s largest powers.

Trump announced the definitions of the weekend, as Chinese families were celebrating the New Year and inviting the god of wealth to their homes.

The bright red lanterns are currently swinging on the empty streets of Beijing, where most of the workers left their hometown during the largest vacation of the year.

China’s response was more complete than Canada or Mexico. The Ministry of Commerce has announced plans to take legal measures and the World Trade Organization’s use to broadcast its grievances.

But this poses a simple threat to Washington. Dispute settlement system has been closed effectively since 2019 when Donald Trump – in his first term – prevented the appointment of judges to deal with appeals.

As the holiday approaches its end, party officials return to Beijing and work – they have decisions to make it.

Officials have been encouraged in recent weeks through signs that the Trump administration may want to maintain a stable relationship, especially after the two leaders had what Mr. Trump called a “great phone call” last month.

Currently, China remains calm, perhaps in the hope of making a deal with Washington to avoid more customs tariffs and maintain the relationship between the world’s largest economists from getting out of control.

But some believe that this cannot continue because both the Republicans and Democrats have seen China as the largest foreign policy in the country and the economic threat.

“The inability to predict Mr. Trump, his impulsion and smuggling will inevitably lead to great shocks in the bilateral relationship,” says Wu Shinbo, a professor and director at the American Studies Center at the University of Fodan.

“In addition, its team contains quite a few hawks, even the extremist falcons in China. The bilateral relationship cannot face a serious disorder over the next four years.”

China is certainly concerned about its relationship with the United States and the damage that the trade war of its slow economy can do.

But it will also search for ways to use the current political pendulum to swing in the international community on its way and within its field of influence.