Before Trump’s return, Russia and the US are jostling for leverage in the Ukraine war.

In a matter of days, US President Joe Biden’s administration and Russia have taken separate but significant steps to influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine, two months before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Moscow has a sense of maximizing its leverage and abandoning Biden’s longstanding red lines before Trump tries to fulfill his claim to end the war in 24 hours.

Ukraine has already followed through on Biden’s decision to allow Kiev to deploy the first long-range ATACMS missiles into Russian territory. As Kiev struggles to hold territory in the east, Biden has also promised to deploy anti-personnel landmines.

What prompted Biden’s change of heart was the arrival of thousands of North Koreans stationed on the front lines, which the US sees as a “massive surge”.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased tensions by loosening the terms of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. Moscow claims it “effectively eliminates” battlefield defeat.

One Russia observer suggested that Putin may see the current situation as an “in-between” moment that gives him the sense that he has a hand in Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Russia launched its largest airstrike in Ukraine in nearly three months. Amid fears of another strike on Wednesday, several Western embassies closed their doors.

“It’s all interconnected,” says Mykhailo Sams, head of the New Geopolitics Research Network in Ukraine. He argues that Russia has been stockpiling Iskander and Kunzal missiles for weeks to enable it to launch a strike and thus send a psychological message ahead of the transition of power to Washington, DC.

Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, may have been spared on Wednesday, but the message got through.

“Everything is about preparing a strong position for negotiations with Trump, understanding that Russia is not going to compromise and everything depends on that. [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr] Zielinski.”

“Clearly Trump is trying to maximize his position,” agrees Jed McGlynn of the War Studies Department at King’s College London. They are highly skeptical that a deal with Vladimir Putin is possible — and that it is ultimately aimed at subduing Russia’s southern neighbor.

Tuesday marked 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Russian forces continue a relentless offensive to capture key centers in eastern Ukraine.

Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center says Moscow’s mood seems to be that it is only a matter of time before Ukraine falls into its hands.

From January, however, Putin will have to consider other factors, she says: “He will have to deal with the fact that Trump is now in charge of the situation. If Putin escalates, it will worsen the chances of a deal.” It may have to be more flexible, more open to different options.

Biden’s decision to allow Kiev to begin firing ATACMS into Russian territory was clearly to help Kiev, but Trump’s delegation felt it too.

Although Trump hasn’t said anything yet, his choice for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, spoke of “another rung on the ladder of a relationship and nobody knows where it’s going.”

He didn’t go as far as some on Trump’s team. Donald Trump Jr. complained that Biden was trying to start “World War III” before his father returned to the White House.

“There’s only one president at a time,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said, adding that when the next president takes office, he can make his own decisions.

Some Republicans have supported Biden’s move, although Sen. Lindsey Graham said he should have done it “to help Ukraine and he’s playing politics with it”.

Russia’s response may or may not be an empty threat.

Under its revised nuclear doctrine, Moscow will now be able to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear nations backed by nuclear powers, and if it comes under “massive” air attack.

Alexander Ermakov of the Russian Council on International Affairs says the change is not like an operational manual for the use of nuclear weapons, but “primarily serves as a declaration to potential adversaries.” , which outlines the scenarios in which such measures may be considered”.

Then, another message from Putin to the West.

Tatiana Stanovaya believes that it is not that he wants to start World War III, but because “he thinks he should scare the Western elites to show that they are playing with fire”.

What will happen after January is anyone’s guess.

Kremlin insiders have already begun briefing their minimum demands on any Trump move to end the war, and Vladimir Zelensky has also begun clarifying his position.

Asked in a US TV interview what would happen to Ukraine if Washington cut military aid, he was clear: “If they cut, I think we’re going to lose. Of course, we stay.” Will and will fight. We have production, but it’s not enough to prevail.”

Putin insists Ukraine has to remain neutral for any relationship to work, even though it is now part of Ukraine’s constitution to join both NATO and the EU.

A Reuters news agency report on Wednesday cited Russian officials as saying that Putin may be willing to withdraw from relatively small areas but nothing larger.

Zelensky presented his 10-point “flexibility plan” to parliament on Tuesday, and a defiant message resonated most in the Verkhona Rada.

“Maybe someone in Moscow has to stay alive for Ukraine to achieve all of its goals … to restore the full integrity of Ukraine.”

One day Russia will be without Putin, in other words, but Ukraine won’t go anywhere.

Mykhailo Sams says the wait may take years for Ukrainians, but they will never agree to leave Crimea or any other territory under Russian occupation.

They believe the most Zelensky might be willing to sign would be a cease-fire without commitments. Anything else will cause internal conflict as many will see it as cheating.

Mykola Belyskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kiev believes the key is to prevent any major Russian advances in the east before any talks take place.

“It is important for us to localize only. [Russian] Advances… using Atacms, anti-personnel mines or whatever. Because if the Russians succeed, they will try to dictate the terms.

Speaking to the BBC from Kharkiv, Jed McGlynn said few Ukrainians believed Trump would be able to engineer any kind of lasting peace deal.

Any settlement that would leave Ukraine in a worse position would lead to political chaos, he said.

“Europe needs to move forward,” he said, “and ultimately we know that the Scandinavians, the Baltic states and Poland are not enough.”