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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The author is chairman of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What went wrong with capitalism?‘
With nearly every corner of the 50 states swinging the vote, Donald Trump’s victory in the race for the White House appears to reflect a major shift toward the populist right, across all demographics. But America is just another country where the protest vote—not necessarily on the right or the left—has become the new majority.
The widespread discourse of a “global” anti-incumbency wave misses an important distinction. This year, among the 50 most populous democracies, 14 percent won elections in developed countries, compared to 73 percent in developing countries. Approval ratings show the same clear difference. Leaders are unpopular on average in the developed world but still popular in the developing world. This wave is not global, it is a revolt against the long-term decay in post-capitalist economies, the most prominent example of which is the US.
For the first time since the late 1800s, a party in power has lost three consecutive US presidential elections (including Trump in 2020). With anti-government animosity this strong, it is too early to draw triumphant conclusions about the strength of its mandate, or the durability of its majority.
The natural selection advantages that newcomers once had are lost. A century of government expansion has molded capitalism into a system that has state support for everyone, but has benefited the rich and powerful far more than the average American, hence their revolt. I should not be surprised. Protest votes were cast only for outsiders to send a disgruntled message to the establishment. Now their intention is to keep them in power.
Trump follows a long line of anti-establishment and anti-global populists dating back to President William McKinley in the 1890s and radio pastor Charles “Father” Coughlin in the 1930s, Senator Joe McCarthy in the 1950s, and presidential Runs through candidates. Recent decades like Barry Goldwater, Ross Perot and Sarah Palin. But Trump is the first in a line since McKinley to reach the White House, suggesting populist disillusionment is at its highest level since the 19th century.
Many explanations for his victory cite recent campaign events — his courage in the face of a potential assassin, Kamala Harris’ failure to present herself as an agent of “change,” and the price of eggs. Eggs are really important. It has long been clear to me that for the incumbents, rapid growth may or may not lead to victory, but high inflation greatly increases the risk of defeat.
Yet it is likely that the Democrats would have lost even if inflation had not risen under Joe Biden, and he had been replaced earlier by a new candidate. What is fueling the protest vote is a breakdown in confidence in the economic future. Nine out of 10 Americans born in the 1940s grew up to earn more than their parents. Today, fewer than four in 10 say they expect to do the same. Homes are less affordable for teenagers than at any point in living memory. Trust in many institutions is at or near all-time lows, with trust in the presidency in the low 20s and big business in the mid-teens.
Enmity with and nexus between big government and big business has helped foster the rise of a third force in American politics. While they were a distinct minority in the late 1990s, according to Gallup, voters who say they are “independent” now represent a strong plurality of 37 percent, consistently leading Democrats and Republicans. Leave behind.
Still, there’s no question that Trump-style populism had some undefined past, before globalization started the flow of jobs to China and illegal immigrants into the U.S., and before the unprecedented expansion of government under Biden. yearns for Now Trump needs to address the sentiments he has unleashed.
Despite his radical attacks on the “deep state,” Trump’s plans threaten to deliver more of the same in one important respect. Based on crowd-pleasing tax cuts, his fiscal strategy promises to move more and more government money through the system and into financial markets, mainly to the benefit of big corporations and billionaires.
For all the analysis of specific new “Trump trades,” U.S. asset prices are rising essentially as they did under Biden. For Republicans to break the anti-incumbency streak in the next round of elections, Trump needs to be a real disruptor and shift the balance of power away from big corporations and the wealthy establishment. The mandate should be interpreted as what it is – a strong protest vote.
